There is no doubt about it: 2025 has been a year of tumultuous change across the world, with a very different new world order from 2024. However, no matter who is in charge of world affairs, we can only focus on the world that we live in and, even more importantly, assess what the future holds for the UK transport industry. So let’s just get some context on where exactly the transport sector fits in terms of the UK’s overall economy.
As at 2023, the UK transport sector saw a slight decline in value compared to the previous year, although it remained significantly higher than the levels recorded during the pandemic. However, this marked a significant improvement from the all-time low of £55.4 billion in 2020, reflecting the shift in life patterns brought on by the pandemic (figures presented by the Office for National Statistics, ONS). The reality is that the transport sector plays a crucial role in supporting trade, tourism, and overall economic growth across the nation.
The biggest challenge facing the transport sector is ensuring a workforce equipped with the skills needed to navigate evolving technologies, sustainability imperatives, and global trends. There is no doubt that, going forward, each area within the transport sector will have distinct requirements, so a one-size-fits-all approach is simply not applicable. A good example is the time it takes to train a train driver, which is around 15 months, compared to a bus driver, where the average training period is approximately 8 weeks. It is therefore vital that each sector develops a long-term strategy to address skills shortages, ensuring the industry remains fit for purpose and capable of fulfilling its contribution to the national economy and society as a whole.
How many people does the sector employ? The current number stands at 2,517,000, with around 45,000 vacancies as of June 2024 (Office for National Statistics). It is not surprising that the sector remains male-dominated, with 80% of the workforce being male and only 20% female. This significant imbalance is particularly striking when compared to the UK’s working-age population, which is approximately 49% male and 51% female. In addition, there is an ageing workforce challenge across most modes within the sector, especially in operational roles such as driving and control. Interestingly, the sector broadly reflects the ethnic makeup of the UK’s working population, with 82% identifying as white, compared to 81% in the wider workforce.
The prediction going forward, as estimated by the ONS, is that the UK could face a shortfall of up to 409,000 workers in the transport sector by 2030, just five years away. This estimate is based on projected retirement levels, the introduction of new technologies, and the impact of net zero targets and decarbonisation on the sector.
So, what can we conclude from this intriguing snapshot? The first factor that emerges is the vital importance of the transport sector in sustaining and growing the UK economy. This was clearly demonstrated during the pandemic, when the nation was kept moving thanks to both the freight and logistics industry and the passenger transport sectors. Lesson number one is that this role must be recognised and protected to ensure the nation can continue to flourish in the future. The second factor is that, if the sector is to achieve its potential, a robust and achievable plan must be implemented now. The predicted skills shortage by 2030 needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. In this regard, the burden of responsibility lies with both the transport sectors and companies, as well as the government, to provide financial and practical support to ensure these challenging targets can be met. I have every confidence that this can and will be achieved. After all, we have no choice if we are to fulfil our nation’s expectations for future economic growth and prosperity in this rapidly changing world.
Written by Austin Birks
